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Emkay Global on Monday said it would play the recovery post the US-Iran deal through consumption, as it believes the immediate beneficiaries of the deal will be shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs), transportation, cement, and select lenders, along with Middle East-exposed stocks like Larsen & Toubro (L&T). For now, the domestic brokerage has retained its Nifty target of 29,000 for March 2027.\u00a0<\/p>
Emkay said the recent correction, where Nifty fell 7 per cent since February 2026, has normalised valuations for the broader market. Nifty trades at 17.8 times, below its past five-year average of 19.6 times. Emkay said market breadth is supportive too, with 48 per cent of the consensus universe below long-term mean (28 per cent below -1SD).\u00a0<\/p>
Nifty target\u00a0<\/strong><\/p> The expected FY27 EPS growth of 15.7 per cent suggests strong earnings recovery, subject to slight near-term risks from the oil shock and the effects of the ME crisis, Emkay said.<\/p> “We see crude settling at $75-80 a barrel, and this is unambiguously positive for India on external account, domestic liquidity, and supply chain easing. We maintain our FY27 Nifty target at 29,000 and see a strong rally sustaining in the short term. Our bullishness is supported by strong earnings, with FY27E Nifty EPSg at 15.7% and moderate valuations at 17.8 times. OMCs, transportation, cement, and select lenders (banks\/NBFCs) are the best ways to play the recovery,” Emkay said.<\/p> Nifty settled Monday’s session at 23,853.90, up 231 points or 0.98 per cent. The BSE Sensex settled the day at 76,264.33, up 736.38 points or 0.97 per cent.\u00a0<\/p> To recall, the US and Iran agreed on a deal to end the war in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz set to re-open on Friday, June 19. This has a three-fold macro benefit for India. First, Brent should settle at $75-80 a barrel against an average of $103 per barrel in Apr-May-26. This delivers a proforma benefit of 64 per cent on the current account deficit (CAD)\u00a0<\/p> “Second, it addresses supply chain bottlenecks and potential RM shortage worries across multiple sectors and averts a potential inflation shock. Third, the relief on the external account translates to improved domestic liquidity, which should help interest rate transmission. We expect a multi-asset rally: Rs93\/USD, the 10-year gilt to 6.75 per cent, and the 12M T-bill to 5.5 per cent. We expect the consumption cycle to be a standout beneficiary, continuing the upward momentum from Q4CY25 after GST cuts kicked in, Emkay said.<\/p> Top stock ideas<\/strong> Upstream energy stocks could be among the laggards as their investment case has weakened. Safe-haven sectors such as FMCG, pharma and technology may also underperform, Emkay said.<\/p> Key risks<\/strong> Also, the entire region is on a knife\u2019s edge, and flare-ups could recur even after the deal is signed.\u00a0<\/p> Besides, the damage to oil infra is still not clear \u2013 there may be a negative surprise on timelines for supply normalization. Emkay still believes the oil market is pricing in 3-6 months of delays.\u00a0<\/p> “We see low probabilities of these risks crystallizing, and are working of our base case of the SoH fully reopening on Friday and oil receding to $75-80,” it said.<\/p> <\/lta><\/p> <\/div> Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.<\/i><\/p> Nifty target, US-Iran deal, stock ideas, key market risks#Nifty #target #play #USIran #deal #Stock #ideas #key #market #risks1781519971<\/p> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Emkay Global on Monday said it would play the recovery post the US-Iran deal through consumption, as it believes the immediate beneficiaries of the deal will be shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs), transportation, cement, and select lenders, along with Middle East-exposed stocks like Larsen & Toubro (L&T). For now, the domestic brokerage has retained […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[198,8186,932,40014,1724,2110,38605,7985,1419,2121,19752,1798,40013,22490],"class_list":["post-10044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-content-marketing","tag-deal","tag-ideas","tag-key","tag-key-market-risks","tag-market","tag-nifty","tag-nifty-target","tag-play","tag-risks","tag-stock","tag-stock-ideas","tag-target","tag-us-iran-deal","tag-usiran"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10044","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10044"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10044\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
“Our top ideas to play the market recovery: OMCs (all trading at
Emkay noted that the deal will be inked on Friday. It is still a high probability, but not a certainty \u2013 given the number of false dawns during the ceasefire, any disruption would send oil spiking and reverse our entire thesis.\u00a0<\/p>