<\/p>
India\u2019s consumption-driven economy has the capacity to grow at over 7% annually even if crude oil prices remain elevated in the $90\u2013100 per barrel range, industry body Assocham said, underscoring the country\u2019s improving resilience to energy shocks. However, rising global crude prices are beginning to strain domestic fuel economics, with a sharp increase in petrol and diesel prices likely after ongoing elections.<\/p>
According to Assocham, India has historically demonstrated the ability to withstand high oil price environments without derailing growth. An analysis of data from 2000\u201301 to 2025\u201326 shows that several of India\u2019s strongest growth phases coincided with moderate to high crude prices. For instance, the economy expanded by 7.6% in 2022\u201323 when oil prices averaged $93 per barrel, and by 7.2% in 2023\u201324 with crude at $82 per barrel.<\/p>
Even during the 2011\u201314 period, when oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel, India recorded GDP growth in the range of 5.2% to 6.4%. In contrast, the sharpest contraction of (-) 5.78% occurred in 2020\u201321 when oil prices were at multi-year lows, highlighting that external shocks like the pandemic, rather than energy prices alone, have had a more pronounced impact on growth.<\/p>
Assocham President Nirmal Kumar Minda attributed this resilience to India\u2019s strong consumption base, which drives demand, supports industrial expansion, and creates a virtuous cycle of income and employment growth. He added that the economy is likely to maintain growth above 7% in 2026\u201327, supported by steady exports, robust domestic demand, and rising capital expenditure.<\/p>
Official estimates also remain optimistic. The government\u2019s first advance estimates peg GDP growth at 7.4% for the current fiscal, reinforcing India\u2019s position as the fastest-growing major economy despite geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.<\/p>
MUST READ:\u00a0US blockade faltering? 34 Iranian tankers slip through naval cordon in Hormuz<\/strong><\/p> However, global agencies have struck a more cautious note. Moody\u2019s has trimmed India\u2019s growth forecast to 6%, citing inflationary pressures from geopolitical conflicts, while the OECD expects growth to moderate to 6.1%. Domestic rating agency ICRA has projected growth at 6.5% for FY27, pointing to risks from elevated energy prices and supply uncertainties.<\/p> Rising crude oil prices<\/strong><\/p> Meanwhile, rising crude oil prices are beginning to create stress in India\u2019s fuel pricing dynamics. Brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities has warned that petrol and diesel prices may need to rise by \u20b925\u201328 per litre to reflect higher input costs. Crude markets remain volatile due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions in West Asia.<\/p> India\u2019s crude import bill has surged despite a 13\u201315% drop in import volumes, increasing by an estimated $190\u2013210 million per day. Retail fuel prices, however, have remained unchanged, leading to mounting losses for refiners \u2014 estimated at around \u20b9270 billion per month.<\/p> MUST READ:\u00a0How financial maturity, access and adoption remains unevenly distributed in India: A\u00a0study of two states<\/strong><\/p> Kotak noted that while the case for a fuel price hike is strong, the timing is likely to be influenced by political considerations, with any revision expected after elections conclude. Despite government measures such as excise duty cuts and windfall taxes, the relief has been partial.<\/p> With global oil volatility persisting, India appears capable of sustaining economic growth, but the pressure on fuel prices suggests a near-term inflation risk that policymakers will need to carefully manage.<\/p> (With PTI inputs)<\/em><\/p> <\/div> #India #sustain #growth #oil #Assocham #fuel #price #hike #risks #loom1776879869<\/p> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" India\u2019s consumption-driven economy has the capacity to grow at over 7% annually even if crude oil prices remain elevated in the $90\u2013100 per barrel range, industry body Assocham said, underscoring the country\u2019s improving resilience to energy shocks. However, rising global crude prices are beginning to strain domestic fuel economics, with a sharp increase in petrol […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[26007,3146,446,1038,200,21182,988,1782,1419,12836],"class_list":["post-6998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-content-marketing","tag-assocham","tag-fuel","tag-growth","tag-hike","tag-india","tag-loom","tag-oil","tag-price","tag-risks","tag-sustain"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6998\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6999"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}