<\/p>
India is relatively better placed than several global economies to manage the ongoing energy shock. However, prolonged oil shortages could still significantly hurt global growth and trigger deeper economic disruptions, economists Neelkanth Mishra and Dr Sajjid Chinoy said during a macroeconomic discussion at Groww\u2019s India Investor Festival.<\/p>
The discussion focused on rising geopolitical tensions, energy supply disruptions, oil prices, currency pressures and the broader impact on the global economy.<\/p>
Hard shortages<\/strong><\/p> Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist at Axis Bank and Head of Global Research at Axis Capital, warned that the global economy could face severe supply disruptions if the ongoing crisis persists for several more weeks.<\/p> \u201cWe are weeks away from really hard shortages, which will have a significantly negative impact on the global economy over the next year,\u201d Mishra said.<\/p> He noted that although physical oil market pressures had eased slightly in recent days, the situation remained fragile.<\/p> MUST READ:\u00a0Petrol, diesel prices likely to be hiked within a week: Sources<\/strong><\/p> \u201cThe oil market is already starting to believe that the physical shortage of oil is mostly behind us. Now I\u2019m not saying the problem is solved and that we are totally out of the woods yet,\u201d he said.<\/p> Mishra pointed out that inventories across major markets have fallen sharply, while seasonal fuel demand is beginning to rise. According to him, if supply disruptions continue, sectors such as tourism, aviation and industrial production could see substantial damage.<\/p> Smaller economies<\/strong><\/p> Despite the risks, Mishra said India\u2019s scale and policy interventions have helped cushion some of the impact. \u201cIndia has done a good job,\u201d he said, referring to energy procurement and fertilizer availability.<\/p> He explained that India\u2019s ability to subsidise and secure critical imports has protected domestic agriculture and energy supplies better than many smaller nations.<\/p> MUST READ:\u00a0\u20b930,000 Cr monthly hit for OMCs: How long can the Govt hold back fuel price hikes?<\/strong><\/p> \u201cIndia, because of bidding and because government support is happening, at least the Kharif season doesn\u2019t seem to be badly affected,\u201d Mishra said.<\/p> He contrasted this with countries unable to subsidise fertilizer or energy imports effectively.<\/p> \u201cThe farmers in countries that cannot subsidise are the worst hit,\u201d he added.<\/p> Global economic risks<\/strong><\/p> Dr. Sajjid Chinoy, Managing Director and Chief India Economist at JP Morgan, said the scale of the current energy disruption is among the largest the industry has faced. He explained that the immediate impact has been partly contained through inventory drawdowns, but warned this cannot continue indefinitely. \u201cYou can do this for another four or six or eight weeks, but at some point inventories will hit their operational minimum and then you actually see physical shortages,\u201d he said.<\/p> Chinoy warned that shortages in fuel and energy could permanently damage small businesses and economic activity.<\/p> MUST READ:\u00a0Gold outlook: Can oil shocks, central bank buying revive bullion prices in May?<\/strong><\/p> \u201cWhen a small business shuts down because of lack of energy or LPG, two months later even when supplies are restored, it doesn\u2019t open back up,\u201d he said.<\/p> Rupee and external sector<\/strong><\/p> Chinoy also noted that India\u2019s key vulnerability remains the external sector, particularly oil imports and capital flows. However, both economists agreed that India\u2019s relatively strong domestic demand, fiscal flexibility and policy response provide a stronger starting position than many emerging economies facing the same energy shock.<\/p> They also said the current crisis could push governments globally to accelerate structural reforms, energy diversification and supply-chain resilience strategies.<\/p> MUST READ:\u00a0OPEC+ raises output by 188,000 bpd after UAE exit, tests market stability amid war\u00a0<\/strong><\/p> <\/div> India energy shock analysis, global oil shortage impact, Neelkanth Mishra oil outlook, Sajid Chinoy energy crisis, India economy oil prices, global economic slowdown oil shock, rupee and oil prices India, energy supply disruption impact, India current account deficit oil, Groww India Investor Festival economics#039India #positioned #energy #shock #but…039 #Economists #oil #risks1778320325<\/p> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" India is relatively better placed than several global economies to manage the ongoing energy shock. However, prolonged oil shortages could still significantly hurt global growth and trigger deeper economic disruptions, economists Neelkanth Mishra and Dr Sajjid Chinoy said during a macroeconomic discussion at Groww\u2019s India Investor Festival. The discussion focused on rising geopolitical tensions, energy […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7816,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[1412,11322,22887,2069,28991,28989,28985,28993,28992,28988,28984,28986,988,28994,1419,28990,28987,7697],"class_list":["post-7815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-content-marketing","tag-039india","tag-but-039","tag-economists","tag-energy","tag-energy-supply-disruption-impact","tag-global-economic-slowdown-oil-shock","tag-global-oil-shortage-impact","tag-groww-india-investor-festival-economics","tag-india-current-account-deficit-oil","tag-india-economy-oil-prices","tag-india-energy-shock-analysis","tag-neelkanth-mishra-oil-outlook","tag-oil","tag-positioned","tag-risks","tag-rupee-and-oil-prices-india","tag-sajid-chinoy-energy-crisis","tag-shock"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7815\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7816"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/longzhuplatform.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u201cEuropean jet fuel inventories are down sharply, bunker fuel inventory in Singapore has been shrinking, and we are just about hitting the seasonal pickup in flights,\u201d he said.<\/p>
\u201cThere are 13.5 million barrels that are offline. That is the largest oil shock of the industry,\u201d Chinoy said.<\/p>
\u201cThe weakest link for some time has been the external sector,\u201d he said.<\/p>