Varun Beverages share price: VBL targets by 6 brokerages

Varun Beverages Ltd reported a 6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in December quarter (Q4) sales, beating consensus estimates. However, Ebitda growth of 10 per cent YoY for the quarter fell short of Street expectations, largely due to an adverse pricing mix in India and softer domestic margins. Analysts remained cautiously optimistic on the Varun Beverages stock, while flagging rising competitive intensity as a key near-term monitorable.

ICICI Securities said VBL reported better-than-expected India volume growth at 10.5 per cent YoY in a seasonally weak Q4. It said a decline in realisation indicates increasing competitive intensity. While the management is cautiously optimistic about delivering double-digit volume growth in India on a weak base and maintaining margins, aided by capacity additions at new plants and distribution expansion, ICICI Securities sees risks.

“International business performance remained strong with 10 per cent YoY volume growth, and is expected to benefit further from portfolio expansion (snacks portfolio, Carlsberg beer distribution) and Twizza acquisition (in Q2CY26). We reiterate HOLD, factoring in higher competitive intensity over the medium term,” it said while suggesting a target of Rs 470 on the stock. 

Emkay Global said despite a subdued calendar 2025 and additional costs related to new capacity expansion, VBL has executed well with stable Ebitda margin in 2025. VBL, Emkay said, expects to offset incremental growth investments in 2026 with the benign crude and operating leverage. 

“Twizza acquisition/foray into alcohol beverages is not built into our estimate and is being factored in separately with Rs 15/20 in our SOTP target price,” it said while setting a target price of Rs 615 on the stock. 

MOFSL maintained its 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates and reiterated its  ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target of Rs 570. 

YES Securities expects VBL’s revenue to grow at 13 per cent CAGR over 2025-27 with 30 basis points Ebitda margin improvement largely driven by scale, efficiencies, channel mix improvement and backward integration. 

Pro-active capacity additions in domestic as well as international businesses along with long runway for distribution expansion and new opportunities explored for International business, gives VBL good visibility on medium-to-long term growth but near-term competitive intensity remains a risk, YES Securities said.

“We thus cut our target multiple to 46x, giving us a revised target price (TP) of Rs535 (Rs 625 earlier), valuing on our Sept’27E EPS,” it said.

Nuvama has cut its EPS estimates by 3-4 per cent for FY26 and FY27. It revised its target to Rs 558 from Rs 595. 

“With a likely uptick in volumes, utilisation and fixed cost absorption should improve and support margins in CY26E. We have cut earnings by c.3-4 per cent for CY26/27E to factor in lower India realisations. Maintain BUY with a revised target of Rs 550 (Rs 570 earlier, 50x CY27E). Adverse season/irrational competitive activity in India business remains a key risk,” JM Financial said.

Elara Securities suggested ‘Accumulate’ on the stock with a lower target of Rs 535. 

“While we raised our revenue estimates by 5 per cent for CY26E and 3.7 per cent for CY27E; baking in Twizza acquisition, we slightly reduce our CY26E EPS by 0.5 per cent and CY27E EPS by 3.5 per cent, led by a cut in Ebitda margin by 81 bps for CY26E and 94bp in CY27E,” it said.