Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 2 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open on a flat note, amid the cautious tone over indications of a mildly positive opening, as elevated crude oil prices, persistent weakness in the Indian rupee, and escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran are likely to cap near-term upside.

The near-term outlook for Indian equities remains mixed. Elevated geopolitical tensions in West Asia, Brent crude oil prices and the rupee weakening are expected to keep volatility elevated, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “The ongoing Q1FY27 earnings season is expected to provide support to market through stock-specific action.”

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 1.80 points, or 0.01 per cent, up at 24,066, hinting at a flat start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian shares fell on Thursday. KOPSI crashed more than 7 per cent, while Nikkei was down 3 per cent. Hang Seng managed to inch higher.

Wall Street stocks gained ground on Wednesday as softening inflation data and a robust beginning of quarterly earnings season put investors in a buying mood. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150.91 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 52,659.18, the S&P 500 gained 28.83 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 7,572.42 and the Nasdaq Composite rise 162.22 points, or 0.62 per cent, to 26,269.23.

Crude, dollar, gold & more
Oil prices kept climbing as hostilities heated up in the Middle East. Brent crude futures rose 0.6 per cent to $85.45 a barrel. Ten-year yields were steady at 4.5593 per cent, having been down 7 bps over the past two days and the greenback was pulled down as the dollar index was steady at 100.48. Gold was steady at $4,055 an ounce.

The market drew support from softer-than-expected US inflation data, which eased concerns over the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and improved global risk sentiment, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “We maintain our ‘buy-on-dips’ approach, with a preference for relatively stronger stocks across sectors while adhering to disciplined risk and position management.”

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 735.83 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 704.93 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
Technically, a Doji candle on daily charts and non-directional activity on intraday charts indicate indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears. On the positive side, 24,200 /77,500 would act as a key resistance zone for traders, while 24,000 /77,000 remains the crucial support zone for the bulls, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

“Above 24,200/77,500, the market could move up to 24,300-24,350/77,800-78,000. On the flip side, dismissing the 24,000/77,000 level could accelerate selling pressure. Below this, the market could retest the level of the 50-day SMA or around 23,800-23,750/76,300-76,000,” he added.

Sensex continues to trade above its 20-Day EMA and 50-Day EMA, indicating that the short-term trend remains constructive despite the intraday volatility, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. “Going ahead, 76,500–76,800 will act as an immediate support zone, while 77,800–78,000 remains the key resistance range for the index,” it added.

Nifty is hovering within a narrow range of around 24,200-24,000 and is showing a lack of strength to sustain the highs. A decisive move beyond the range could open sharp movement on either side. The sideways range movement is expected to continue for the next 1-2 sessions. Immediate supports to be watched at 24,000 followed by 23,800 levels, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

On the derivatives front, India VIX declined 3.49 per cent to 13.27, indicating easing volatility, while the PCR slipped to 0.77, reflecting a cautious undertone as call writers remained active at higher strikes, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has been consolidating within a 965-point range on the daily charts over the past several sessions. It formed a small-bodied candle with a noticeable upper wick, highlighting the index’s inability to sustain at higher levels and indicating the presence of selling pressure near resistance, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

“Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,300-57,200 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 56800, followed by 56,400 in the short term. On the upside, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 58,200-58,300 zone,” he said.

Bank Nifty formed a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow highlighting profit booking at higher levels as index failed to close above the 58,000 levels. It is consolidating in the range of 58,700-56,500 and it is expected to extend the same and only a breakout or breakdown will signal the next directional move, said Bajaj Broking Research.

“On the upside, 58,700 remains the immediate hurdle. A decisive close above this level would confirm a breakout from the ongoing consolidation and could trigger the next leg of the rally towards 59,300 and eventually 60,000 levels in the coming weeks. On the downside index has major support placed at 56,500, where the 20-week and 50-week EMAs converge,” it added.