'The real sting is the monitoring': Brahma Chellaney flags risk for India in Trump's Russian oil order

Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney has cautioned that the most consequential element of US President Donald Trump’s executive order on Russian oil is not the immediate tariff relief granted to India, but the strict monitoring mechanism embedded within it. 

In a post on Saturday, Chellaney said the order formally assigns the US commerce secretary the task of tracking India’s oil sourcing, creating a clear trigger for action. “The real sting in Trump’s executive order on Russian oil lies in its monitoring mandate. It formally tasks the commerce secretary with tracking Indian oil imports and creates a clear trigger: a finding that India has resumed ‘directly or indirectly’ importing Russian oil could snap the 25% punitive tariff back into place,” he wrote.

Chellaney warned that the inclusion of the word “indirectly” significantly widens the scope of enforcement. “The word ‘indirectly’ is a loaded one. It opens the door to penalising Indian refined fuels – diesel, jet fuel and other products – sold to Europe or the U.S. if Washington deems them to have originated from Russian crude,” he said.

He also flagged that replacing discounted Russian Urals crude with market-priced US oil – made costlier still by longer transport distances – is estimated to add up to $4 billion a year to India’s oil import bill. “Washington’s intent is unmistakable: to tether India’s energy security to a more expensive and geographically distant supplier, the US.”

On Friday, the US said India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian oil, a move that has led Washington to remove the additional 25 per cent tariffs imposed on Indian goods last August. According to an executive order issued by US President Donald Trump, India has also committed to a framework with the US to expand defence cooperation over the next 10 years. However, Trump has made it clear that the tariff rollback is conditional and reversible.

In the executive order, he said the US would closely track India’s oil sourcing. “The Secretary of Commerce, in coordination with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, and any other senior official the Secretary of Commerce deems appropriate, shall monitor whether India resumes directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, as defined in section 7 of Executive Order 14329.”

He added that a determination by US authorities could trigger further action. “If the Secretary of Commerce finds that India has resumed directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the United States Trade Representative, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and the Assistant to the President and Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, shall recommend whether and to what extent I should take additional action as to India.”

That action, Trump said, could include restoring the earlier penalties. “Including whether I should reimpose the additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 per cent on imports of articles of India.”

Under the interim trade deal, Trump has removed the 25 per cent additional import duty imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil, citing that New Delhi has undertaken “significant steps” and committed to stop directly or indirectly importing oil from Moscow. The interim pact is expected to open a USD 30 trillion market for Indian exporters, particularly MSMEs, farmers and fishermen, as US duties on Indian goods come down to 18 per cent from 50 per cent earlier