Domestic airfares set to rise as IndiGo capacity cuts hit summer schedule: Report

Domestic airfare is set to rise owing to a 2% cut in April 2026 domestic schedule, primarily due to IndiGo’s capacity constraints post December 2025 meltdown, said Cirium, an aviation analytics firm.

As part of its Aviation Market Outlook 2026, released February 4, Cirium said that India’s domestic capacity is shrinking in April 2026 over April 2025 by 2%. The drop is attributed to IndiGo’s 10% capacity cut imposed by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA).

Richard Evans, Senior Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said the firm’s October 2025 forecast projected that India’s aviation market will grow at 10% per annum for the next decade.

“However, India is down (growth) for April 2026 because of the Indigo schedule meltdown. There is a capacity cut, and we don’t know how long it will continue. Domestic schedule is not growing, and airfares will go up in the market,” said Evans.

The Ministry of Civil Aviation has capped the airfare post the IndiGo episode, but is likely to take a call on it with the summer schedule kicking in April onwards. Airfares in India are market-driven and not regulated by the government.   

IndiGo saw cancellation of over 5689 flights in early December after the new Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms kicked in from November 2025 onwards. With thousands of passengers stranded due to IndiGo cancellations, the DGCA gave the airline a one-time FDTL relaxation till Feb 10.

IndiGo is also under the Competition Commission of India (CCI) scanner for abuse of market dominance, having a 65% market share. The low-cost carrier’s net profit nosedived by 77.6% to Rs 549.8 crore, compared to Rs 2,448.8 crore in Q3FY26, compared to the same period of the previous fiscal.

The airline’s financials were severely impacted by exceptional items aggregating to Rs 1,546.5 crore during the quarter. This included a significant provision of Rs 969.3 crore towards the implementation of new labour laws.

Additionally, the company absorbed costs of Rs 555 crore related to operational disruptions and a penalty of Rs 22.2 crore imposed by the DGCA. The airline faced major service disruptions in early December, which resulted in flight cancellations and delays.