Tata Steel, Vedanta, SAIL, Nalco, HEG, Jindal Steel, Gravita, Coal India: Target prices

Emkay Global in its latest note said the December quarter was eventful for the metals space, with company-specific developments shaping the near-term outlook across ferrous and non-ferrous segments. The brokerage remained constructive on select ferrous names and preferred plays within non-ferrous, while cautioning that macro volatility had balanced the near-term risk-reward in base metals.

Emkay Global retained a ‘Buy’ rating on Hindalco Industries Ltd with a target price of Rs 1,050. It also maintained ‘Buy’ on Vedanta Ltd and National Aluminium Company Ltd (Nalco) with target prices of Rs 850 and Rs 390, respectively. Tata Steel Ltd is rated ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 230, the brokerage said. It suggested an ‘Add’ rating on JSW Steel Ltd with a target price of Rs 1,300 and on Jindal Steel with a target price of Rs 1,125.

Emkay retained ‘Buy’ on Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) with a target price of Rs 175 and Add on Coal India Ltd with a target price of Rs 450. In the recycling and graphite space, it maintained ‘Buy’ on Gravita India Ltd with a target price of Rs 2,400 and ‘Buy’ on HEG Ltd with a target price of Rs 750.

Emkay Global said Hindalco’s Novelis flagged delays in the Oswego restart, which were likely to add near-term balance sheet strain. Vedanta Ltd reaffirmed its demerger timeline, retaining April 1, 2026 as the effective date. Tata Steel Ltd signalled sustainability of recent steel price hikes, with European prices potentially rising by about €100 per tonne in 2026 towards US levels. Gravita India Ltd guided for commissioning of 125 kilo tonnes incremental lead capacity in Q4FY26, with full ramp-up by Q2FY27.

The brokerage said Q4FY26 should see improvement in earnings of ferrous players, driven by Rs 3,000-4,000 per tonne realisation gains, despite coking coal costs being higher by $15-20 per tonne. Volume ramp-ups were expected to partly offset cost pressures.

Emkay Global said ferrous players reported a soft Q3, but the management commentaries pointed to a stronger Q4 on the back of firmer hot rolled coil and rebar prices. Trade-level steel prices were trending 10-15 per cent above Q3 averages, which should translate into improved realisations in Q4FY26.

While higher coking coal costs could limit some upside, the brokerage said the net impact still pointed to near-term earnings improvement, aided by capacity ramp-ups.

Within graphite, realisations remained weak in Q3 and were likely to stay subdued. However, cost efficiencies at HEG Ltd were expected to support margin expansion and Q4 earnings.

In the non-ferrous segment, companies delivered an in-line quarter, with aggregate Ebitda rising 11.5 per cent QoQ to Rs 25,900 crore. Aluminium, zinc and silver prices were up 8.0 per cent, 11.8 per cent and 39.7 per cent QoQ, respectively.

Emkay said Q4 trends remained favourable, with aluminium prices averaging $3,115 per tonne so far in Q4 versus $2,831 per tonne in Q3, alongside strength in zinc and silver. It sees a meaningful earnings upside for non-ferrous players in Q4FY26, although near-term volatility could remain unsettling.

The brokerage said Gravita India is set for scale-up, supported by commissioning of 125 kilo tonnes capacity.