Russian oil sales to India expected to stay near record highs in April, May

Russian oil sales to India are expected to stay near record highs in April and May following a new US sanctions waiver. Refiners have secured much of their supply through non-sanctioned entities and vessels, according to traders and data released on Tuesday.

India is the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China and the largest importer of its Urals grade. The strong exports to India is expected to help Moscow replenish state funds, said a report in Reuters. In March, India imported a record 2.25 million barrels per day of oil from Russia, nearly doubling February’s volumes and making Russian oil 50% of its total imports.

Russian crude arrivals at Indian ports are expected to reach 2.1 million barrels per day for the week of April 20 to 27, up from 1.67 million barrels per day the previous week, according to data from shipping analytics firm Kpler. The mid-April dip in supplies was likely due to export disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports at the end of March.

Supplies are expected to average more than 2 million barrels per day for the full month of April and are likely to remain around that level or increase in May, according to sources involved in the trade.

Washington issued a 30-day waiver in mid-March allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products to help stabilise global energy markets affected by its war with Iran. The waiver was renewed last week.

Despite sanctions aimed at pressuring Moscow to negotiate peace with Kyiv, Russian oil deliveries to India have continued through non-sanctioned enterprises in the supply chain. Indian refiners had already been actively purchasing Russian oil in April before the waiver extension and secured most volumes for May delivery early last week.

Indian refineries paid premiums of $7 to $9 per barrel over dated Brent for Russian oil cargoes delivered in May, similar to April imports. India has also expanded the number of Russian insurers eligible to provide marine cover for ships docking at its ports from eight to 11, according to its Directorate General of Shipping.