Gold, silver at record highs: Is the rally signalling risk? What it means for equities and your portfolio

Gold and silver prices have surged to fresh record highs, prompting investors to reassess whether this is still the right time to bet on precious metals. On Wednesday, January 14, 2026, gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched Rs 1,39,799 per 10 grams, while silver climbed to Rs 2,62,087 per kg, marking new peaks for both metals.

Gold has delivered a year-to-date gain of 5.16 per cent in just the first two weeks of 2026, while its one-year return stands at an impressive 79.30 per cent. Silver has outshone gold by a wide margin, rising more than 15 per cent so far this year and clocking a staggering 192.1 per cent return over the past 12 months.

Traditionally, such sharp moves in bullion are seen as a signal of rising risk aversion, with investors seeking safety amid uncertainty in equities and other asset classes. However, some market observers argue that the current surge in gold and silver may not fit neatly into that narrative.

Finance advisor and Wisdom Hatch founder Akshat Shrivastava has cautioned that while gold and silver are classic “risk-off” assets, their recent rally does not automatically imply that equity markets are headed for trouble. 

In a series of posts on X, he said that commodities typically benefit when investors rotate out of equities because, unlike stocks, they do not carry valuation multiples that can contract sharply during market corrections. This makes them a natural hedge when bubbles burst elsewhere.

Have gold and silver peaked?

Yet, Shrivastava points out that the current cycle presents an unusual possibility: bullion may have peaked even if equities have not. He argues that most investors assume that rising gold and silver prices signal that smart money is preparing for an equity downturn. But an alternative scenario is that precious metals are overheating while equities could still have room to run.

AI boom

A key factor shaping this view is the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence. Last year, much of the discourse around AI focused on fears of job losses and economic disruption. Today, the narrative is shifting toward productivity gains and long-term efficiency. While technology giants such as Meta, Amazon and Microsoft are still below their previous peaks, spending on AI infrastructure has accelerated at a historic pace.

Outlook for gold and silver

The concern among some investors is that this surge in capital expenditure could itself become a bubble. But Shrivastava suggests that if this spending proves genuinely productive and earnings catch up, the result could be deflationary rather than inflationary. In such a scenario, goods and services would be produced more cheaply and efficiently, benefiting companies that drive this transformation and creating real economic value.

This, he argues, could fundamentally alter the outlook for gold and silver. Precious metals typically thrive in environments marked by inflation, currency weakness and financial stress. A phase of productivity-led growth and deflation, by contrast, would reduce the appeal of bullion as a hedge, potentially triggering a sharp correction after the recent run-up.

Another point he highlights is the scale of technological change underway. For the first time in decades, global technology firms appear to have found a transformative opportunity that justifies massive investment. Hyperscalers are deploying capital not merely to chase trends, but to build the backbone of what could be a new era of productivity. Historically, betting against coordinated momentum from governments, central banks and large technology players has rarely paid off over the long term.

For investors, the takeaway is that the surge in gold and silver should not be viewed in isolation. While precious metals remain valuable portfolio hedges, especially in uncertain times, the current rally could also reflect speculative excess rather than purely defensive positioning. With equities, technology and policy forces pulling in different directions, the next phase for bullion may be more volatile than the past year suggests.